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Basic Poker Statistics

Probability and Poker In the standard game of poker, each player gets 5 cards and places a bet, hoping his cards are 'better' than the other players' hands. The game is played with a pack containing 52 cards in 4 suits, consisting of. Each poker deck has fifty-two cards, each designated by one of four suits (clubs, diamonds, hearts and spades) and one of thirteen ranks (the numbers two through ten, Jack, Queen, King, and Ace). Therefore, the odds of getting any Ace as your first card are 1 in 13 (7.7%), while the odds of getting any spade as your first card are 1 in 4 (25%). This means that Basic Poker Statistics if you got $10 of free credit, you’ll have to play for example 1000 spins at $1 each to roll it over. Note that not all games are allowed to be played with the bonus credit, and not all games contribute at the same rate to roll over requirements.

Introduction to the Mathematics of Poker

Let me get you a little bit into the math of poker. First of all, let’s consider its importance on a hand-to-hand basis. First of all, when you’re dealt a hand in poker, and it’s your turn to act, depending on the action that you got from the other players who acted before you, you have to make the decision either to raise, call or fold.
First of all, you consider your hand. Is it a strong hand that I could get all my money in pre-flop with and be profitable? Or do I have a drawing hand, like a suited connector? And what amount of big blinds can I call at most in this spot to be able to play my hand profitably on the river? Can I re-raise as a bluff and will this bring me profit in the long run? Poker
If all the answers here are no, no and no then you’re going to fold. But are you sure you calculated it correctly? We’ll get into depth on these matters in this article.

Also, let’s say you hold a strong top pair and you’ve got to the river with it, and your opponent over-bet shoves. Do we have the right odds to call here? What is he representing here? And can we put him on a range? And after that can we call profitably? These questions will be answered also.

Pot Odds

I always go for percentages everywhere in poker, because I find it a lot easier to understand and also apply. The first thing I learned when I was starting out with poker, was pot odds, and I think they should be the foundation to every poker player’s knowledge.
To explain this as simple as do re mi, for you to be profitable, the breakeven equity that you need to make a call when you get bet into, is the amount that you have to put into the pot divided by the total pot size (including your bet – so the amount that you’re winning when you have the stronger holding).

Let’s first take an example:

You are playing poker against Phil Ivey, and he bets into you on the river. You’re currently holding AJ, and the board is A2742. Some guy told you that he could either have AT, AJ, AQ or AK, and you’re facing a 2/3 pot bet.
Let’s face it, you’re behind. But what is the amount of hands that beats you relative to the size of the bet you have to call? Good question.
So you beat AT and get beat by AQ and AK, and split with AJ, which we shall discount because it’s 0 EV.
Obviously, the same number of combinations exist for AT, AQ and AK, so we win 1 time out of three!
Our estimated equity is 33%, but are the pot odds low enough? If they are, it’s a sure call!

This is how you calculate:

You need to call 2/3 into a pot that will contain your 2/3 bet, the pot size which is 3/3 and the opponent’s bet which is also 2/3. That means that you have to call 2/3 to win a pot of 7/3, so your breakeven equity will be:
(2/3)/(7/3)*100(to display in percentage) = (2/7)*100 = 28%.
We know from the logic above that we have 33% equity, so we have greater equity than the pot odds, so even though we’re behind, we can still call here profitably!
You have 1 dollar and you hate bluffing, but someone offers you the chance to crack his pocket AA’s with 72o and win 100 dollars if you do it. Assuming this is a legit deal, you only need to put in 1 dollar to win 100 so this is
(1/100)*100=1% breakeven frequency.
Last time I checked Equilab, 72o has around 12% chance to crack aces, so it’s a sure call. I would take this deal every time I get the occasion. Here are some default pot odds that you should know by heart, because they will prove very useful when thinking about calling:
  • 1/3 Pot – 20%
  • 1/2 Pot – 25%
  • 2/3 Pot – 28%
  • 3/4 Pot – 30%
  • 4/5 Pot – 31%
  • Full Pot – 33%
  • 1.5x Pot – 37%
  • 2x Pot – 40%

Statistics

Fold equity

If you’re the one who’s betting, there’s always a combination of your hand’s equity and your total fold equity involved. Let’s say you’re bluffing the river this time, and you’re wondering how to determine the amount of times he has to fold to make your bet profitable, look no further!
Let’s say that we’re betting with a hand that, if we get called, we can never win, like a busted flush draw on the river. If we think that the opponent will fold enough times, we can make this bet.
The formula is: Breakeven Fold Equity = (your bet) divided by (the sum of your bet and the pot size).
Thinking about this, it becomes quite logical that if you bet full pot, you need him to fold 50% of the time, because 1/(1+1) = 1/2 = 50%. Some other frequencies that are good to remember are:
  • 1/3 Pot = 25%
  • 1/2 Pot = 33%
  • 2/3 Pot = 40%
  • 3/4 Pot = 42%
  • 4/5 Pot = 44%
  • 1.5x Pot = 60%
  • 2x Pot = 66%
  • 3x Pot = 75%.
It’s rumored that a certain player named Isildur1 has used the latter numbers to his complete advantage! What if you thought about that first? You’d be probably playing the higher stakes. So now, having showed you how cool this math stuff is, let me show you how to apply it.

Pre-flop actions

First of all, let’s get into notice some flop hitting probabilities:
  • A pair – 29%
  • Two Pairs – 2%
  • A Set (when holding a pocket pair) – 12%
  • Trips – 1.35%
  • A Full house – 0.09%
  • Four of a Kind – 0.01%
  • A pair or better - 32%
  • A flush holding 2 suited cards – 0.84%
  • A flush draw holding 2 suited cards – 11%
  • A straight with suited non-gapped connectors – 1.31%
  • An open-ended straight draw with non-gapped – 10.5%
  • A straight with one-gapers – 0.98%
  • An OESD with one-gapers – 8.08%
  • A straight with two-gapers – 0.65%
  • An OESD with two-gapers – 5.2%
  • A gutshot (suited connectors) – 16.6%
  • Any unsuited hand flopping 2p+ - 3.45%
  • Any suited hand flopping 2p+/flush – 4.29%
  • Suited connectors flopping 2p+/straight/flush – 5.59%
Having known all these, we are now inclined to play a more calculated game pre-flop. Although the reason for calling a raise pre-flop should not be pure mathematical, sometimes it does help to know how often you’ll flop an OESD + FD + pair or better with suited connectors, which is close to 50%.
I don’t like playing small suited connectors in multi-way pots, because usually you get dominated by higher flushes and you get the dummy end of a straight. They also aren’t that great to 3-bet against a raiser because they don’t have blockers, so what are we supposed to do with them when we’re not stealing blinds?
Well, let’s say that the EP raiser is opening a wide array of hands, like 14% and there’s also a caller, so we’re thinking with 56s in the BTN. This is a perfect spot to do the squeeze play, because 1) you’re getting a massive amount of folds, and 2) When you get called you will flop a lot of strong draws that you can represent along with your pairs and 2p+.

Which poker stats are most important?

Our poker HUD software offers a large amount of statistics. Knowing which ones are relevant and important can be overwhelming. If you are new to poker software you can initially ignore all statistics except the essential three poker statistics. Once you have understood how to use the basic statistics, you can add more depending on your style of play, and your chosen table size.

The big three poker statistics (and one bonus stat):

  • Voluntarily Put $ in Pot (VPIP)
  • Preflop Raise (PFR)
  • Postflop Aggression Frequency (Agg)
  • A bonus stat: Big blinds won/100 hands.

These three statistics are a great starting point to get an idea of a person’s playing style. They only require 25 hands or so to reliably give a good idea of a player's tendencies.

Voluntarily Put $ in Pot (VPIP)

VPIP in poker measures how often you voluntarily pay money into a hand before seeing the flop. Paying the big blind, the small blind, or the ante is not considered voluntary. Therefore this percentage indicates how often you called, bet, or raised. The lower this value, the tighter your hand selection is. The higher, the looser. Only preflop betting is taken into account.

Good players know to only invest money in the pot when they have decent starting hands. A simple way to measure whether you are doing this is to keep your VPIP at a sensible value.

What is a good number for VPIP?

Simple answer: between 15% and 20%. This assumes you want to play tightly, you are playing micro-stakes, and you are playing on full ring cash tables.

Now the more complicated answer: it depends a lot. If you are still learning to play good poker, then you should be very selective in which hands you play, so your VPIP might acceptably be a tad lower than 15%. The less people on the table, the more hands you can play. If you are on a table full of ultralight players, you can also loosen up. An experienced player who understands the subtleties of the game can get away with a VPIP between 20% and 27%. In 6-max or heads-up, most players have a much higher VPIP. In Pot Limit Omaha, VPIP values will be even higher.

Preflop Raise (PFR)

The PFR statistic indicates how often you have raised before the flop is seen. A high value is an indicator of an aggressive player. A low value indicates a passive player. Good players are aggressive players.

Your PFR has a possible range between a minumum of 0% and a maximum equal to the value of your VPIP. That is, if your VPIP is 20%, then your PFR can’t be higher than 20%. Ideally it should be a little lower than your VPIP, but not much lower.

Poor players and beginners play timidly. They call too often preflop. Good players frequently fold or raise preflop, especially if no other players have yet raised. If you are not prepared to raise, then you should consider folding. Calling preflop just in case the flop is good for you is not a winning poker strategy.

What is a good PFR range?

Between 2% and 3% lower than VPIP. If your VPIP is 15%, PFR should be about 12%. These two numbers in combination indicate that you are only playing quality hole cards, and you are predominantly raising with them pre-flop. In other words, you are playing how most poker books and poker forums say you should play.

Postflop Aggression Frequency (Agg)

Agg indicates how aggressively you play postflop. The higher this number, the more aggressively you are playing. This must be interpreted in combination with VPIP. Players who see very few flops will naturally tend to have a higher aggression percentage because they are only playing top-quality hole cards.

Poor players play passively postflop. They’ll check or call too often. Good players know to play good hands aggressively postflop:

  • because players with speculative hands are forced to fold before they get free cards
  • because if they hit the flop or have a dominating hand, a bet or raise will increase their return

What is a good Agg range?

50% to 60% is ideal, assuming that you have a VPIP of 15% to 20%. Much higher, and you are probably overplaying speculative hands and bad hands, and bluffing too much. Much lower and you are not playing your good hands strongly postflop.

Leave the bluffing for the movies and for live play. At low stakes online play, bluffing is much less important than a good understanding of the probabilities of winning hands.

Big blinds won/100 hands

The three stats I've presented so far mean nothing if you can't keep your win rate positive. A nice way to 'normalize' your win rate across different stake levels, table sizes, and opponents is to measure how much you won in terms of the big blind. If you are playing at a table where the big blind is $0.50, and you won $20, then think of this as winning 40 big blinds.

Basic Poker Statistics

If this number is not positive, then you are losing money. The best remedy is to drop to a lower stake level, where the opponents are weaker. If, according to this stat, you consistently win over time, then you should consider going up to a higher stake level.

Adjusting your play based on the villain's poker stats

This is where our poker HUD software gets really useful: analyzing and exploiting opponent weaknesses. Let's consider some hypothetical players:

Tight Tim has VPIP of 5%, PFR of 5%, and Agg of 100%

Basic Poker Statistics Cheat

With such a low VPIP, we can guess that this player folds anything except the very best hands. And with a PFR equal to VPIP, when he gets premium hands, he raises. So if this player raises, and you are next to act, you know that you should fold every hand except the best few hands, such as AA, KK, QQ. You can be almost certain that if you go to the flop, he'll raise postflop. So play tighter than usual with this player. But when you do get a premium hand, and he comes along, you can be sure that player B will put plenty of chips into the pot. Your pot, hopefully.

Basic Poker Statistics Games

Passive Pete has VPIP of 20%, PFR of 16%, and Agg of 10%.

This player seems take have a good handle on preflop play. But when he gets to the flop, he gets timid. He is probably going to give you a chance postflop to see the turn and river for free. If you go to the flop with him and raise, there is a good chance he'll fold. So you can play a bit more aggressively both preflop and postflop.

Eddie the Eagle has VPIP of 22%, PFR of 19%, and Agg of 55%.

Eddie has a good all-round balance between preflop and postflop play. Preflop, he plays tight and aggressively. Postflop, he balances between pushing hard with his good hands, and being willing to fold or check with his weaker hands. Eddie would be well-served to move on to understanding more advanced poker statistics.

Tracking your poker stats

Poker players use poker software like Poker Copilot to automatically record their hands. Each hand is broken down into many statistics, which are then aggregated into simple percentages.

Basic Poker Statistics Definition

Poker Statistics Guide

Basic Poker Statistics For Dummies

What’s next after you’ve understood the basic poker stats? Read our Poker Statistics Guide for a comprehensive explanation of understanding and using all the main poker statistics.